To investigate the risk factors of colorectal polyps in patients undergoing colonoscopy and to construct a predictive model.

A total of 1 671 patients who underwent colonoscopy in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing University of Traditional Chinese Medicine from January 2019 to October 2021 were analyzed retrospectively. According to the endoscopic results, 968 patients with colorectal polyps were included in the polyp group, and 703 patients without polyp lesions were included in the polyp-free group. Various factors such as age, gender, height, weight, history of smoking and drinking, laboratory examination and previous colonoscopy results were collected, and the related risk factors affecting the occurrence of colorectal polyps were analyzed. R software was used to establish a nomogram model for predicting the risk of colorectal polyps, and the Bootstrap method was used for internal validation of the model, and the C-index and ROC curve were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the nomogram.

The age (t=151.531, P＜0.001) , male ratio (χ²=50.843, P＜0.001), the proportion of patients with long-term smoking (χ²=5.034, P=0.013), BMI (t=0.813, P＜0.001), past polyps historical proportions in the polyp group (χ²=8.323, P=0.004) were higher than those in the control group, and the difference was statistically significant (P＜0.05). Multivariate logistic regression model analysis showed that age, gender, BMI, the proportion of patients with long-term smoking, previous polyp size, pathological type and growth location were independent risk factors for colorectal polyps (P＜0.05). The ROC curve showed that the AUC was 0.908, and the sensitivity and specificity were 76.9% and 83.2%, respectively.

Age, gender, BMI, the proportion of patients with long-term smoking, previous polyp size, pathological type and growth location are independent risk factors for colorectal polyps. The nomogram model established in this study has good discrimination and accuracy, which can intuitively and individually analyze the risk of colorectal polyps, identify high-risk groups, and provide a reference for clinical screening programs.