Preliminary study on prediction of lymph node metastasis of T1 colorectal cancer by random forest model

doi:10.3877/cma.j.issn.2095-3224.2024.05.006

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective

In order to explore the risk factors of lymph node metastasis of stage T1 colorectal cancer and establish a random forest model to predict lymph node metastasis of stage T1 colorectal cancer patients.

Methods

We collected the clinical data of 280 patients with stage T1 colorectal cancer who underwent radical surgery in the Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from August 2010 to June 2020，and established a random forest model to predict lymph node metastasis of stage T1 colorectal cancer patients by R software.

Results

The incidence of lymph node metastasis in T1 stage colorectal cancer was 11.07% （31/280）. The importance ranking of risk factors following the random forest model for lymph node metastasis in stage T1 colorectal cancer was as follows: age，vascular or neural invasion，tumor location，differentiation degree，gender，tumor size，and Ki67 level. The area under the curve （AUC） of our random forest model for lymph node metastasis in stage T1 colorectal cancer was 0.811，with an optimal threshold of 0.072，specificity of 0.703 and sensitivity of 0.778.

Conclusion

The random forest model is helpful for clinicians to quickly analyze the risk of lymph node metastasis in stage T1 colorectal cancer and make appropriate treatment plans.

Key words: Colorectal neoplasms, Lymph node metastasis, Risk factors, Random forest model

Weiwei Zhang, Qi Chen, Heyu Weng, Liang Huang. Preliminary study on prediction of lymph node metastasis of T1 colorectal cancer by random forest model[J]. Chinese Journal of Colorectal Diseases(Electronic Edition), 2024, 13(05): 389-393.

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URL: https://zhjzcjbdzzz.cma-cmc.com.cn/EN/10.3877/cma.j.issn.2095-3224.2024.05.006

https://zhjzcjbdzzz.cma-cmc.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V13/I05/389

Figures/Tables 6

References 18

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	测试组（n=83）	训练组（n=197）	OR值	检验值	P值
性别					0.067
女	34（41.0）	106（53.8）	Ref.	Ref.
男	49（59.0）	91（46.2）	0.6［0.35；1.00］	0.051
年龄	60.5±10.8	58.5±11.8	0.98［0.96；1.01］	0.179	0.163
肿瘤位置					0.592
直肠	51（61.4）	127（64.5）	Ref.	Ref.
左半结肠	23（27.7）	44（22.3）	0.77［0.42；1.42］	0.393
右半结肠	9（10.8）	26（13.2）	1.15［0.52；2.77］	0.743
肿瘤大小（cm）					0.852
≤2	51（61.4）	117（59.4）	Ref.	Ref.
＞2	32（38.6）	80（40.6）	1.09［0.64；1.85］	0.753
肿瘤分化					0.148
高分化	26（31.3）	67（34.0）	Ref.	Ref.
中分化	54（65.1）	129（65.5）	0.93［0.53；1.61］	0.795
低/未分化	3（3.6）	1（0.5）	0.14［0.00；1.30］	0.085
淋巴结转移					1
无	74（89.2）	175（88.8）	Ref.	Ref.
有	9（10.8）	22（11.2）	1.02［0.46；2.46］	0.955
脉管/神经浸润					0.634
无	75（90.4）	183（92.9）	Ref.	Ref.
有	8（9.6）	14（7.1）	0.71［0.29；1.87］	0.477
Ki67					0.765
阴性	12（14.5）	33（16.8）	Ref.	Ref.
阳性	71（85.5）	164（83.2）	0.85［0.40；1.70］	0.648

	测试组（n=83）	训练组（n=197）	OR值	检验值	P值
性别					0.067
女	34（41.0）	106（53.8）	Ref.	Ref.
男	49（59.0）	91（46.2）	0.6［0.35；1.00］	0.051
年龄	60.5±10.8	58.5±11.8	0.98［0.96；1.01］	0.179	0.163
肿瘤位置					0.592
直肠	51（61.4）	127（64.5）	Ref.	Ref.
左半结肠	23（27.7）	44（22.3）	0.77［0.42；1.42］	0.393
右半结肠	9（10.8）	26（13.2）	1.15［0.52；2.77］	0.743
肿瘤大小（cm）					0.852
≤2	51（61.4）	117（59.4）	Ref.	Ref.
＞2	32（38.6）	80（40.6）	1.09［0.64；1.85］	0.753
肿瘤分化					0.148
高分化	26（31.3）	67（34.0）	Ref.	Ref.
中分化	54（65.1）	129（65.5）	0.93［0.53；1.61］	0.795
低/未分化	3（3.6）	1（0.5）	0.14［0.00；1.30］	0.085
淋巴结转移					1
无	74（89.2）	175（88.8）	Ref.	Ref.
有	9（10.8）	22（11.2）	1.02［0.46；2.46］	0.955
脉管/神经浸润					0.634
无	75（90.4）	183（92.9）	Ref.	Ref.
有	8（9.6）	14（7.1）	0.71［0.29；1.87］	0.477
Ki67					0.765
阴性	12（14.5）	33（16.8）	Ref.	Ref.
阳性	71（85.5）	164（83.2）	0.85［0.40；1.70］	0.648

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